Jan 15: The year 2017 may have gone as the golden period for Indian stock market, in sync with the major economies of the world, global headwinds like tightening of monetary stance by major central banks and increasing crude oil prices, coupled with domestic concerns like firming inflation could halt the underlying bull run in 2018 and bring in lot more volatility going forward, an ASSOCHAM Paper has indicated.
“Correction in the global indices due to any or all of the factors such as- the central banks tightening globally, balance-sheet reduction of the US Fed, pressure on crude oil prices and geo-political risks, among other factors, may impact overbought position in India, China and other Emerging Markets in 2018”, the paper noted.
So, the current year may be contrary to 2017. India’s change in yield in US dollar terms was at 36.8% comparative to China that registered at 51.1%. A combination of primary market growth and overall macro-economic situation made India and China attractive.
The year 2017 had been a golden year for IPOs with as many as 153 initial public offers (IPOs) hitting the Indian stock market, raising around USD 11.6 billion. A large number of the issues were over-subscribed reflecting quality of issues and the appetite for public issues by the investors.
The AUM (Asset Under Management) may remain a preferred choice for investors in 2018 as well, but with the bond markets indicating inflationary pressures and their upward impact on the interest rates, the dice may favour debt market and the bank deposits again.
“In the backdrop of upcoming union budget in the beginning of February, followed by assembly elections in key states, the markets may witness greater amount of volatility,” said ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat.
Of course, the last year had seen a dream run for the market, led by the domestic institutional investors. During Jan-Dec 2017, DII’s made the record by net purchase of Rs 90738.31 Crores, whereas FII’s registered net withdrawal of Rs 44108 Crores from India during this period.
During the year 2017, the stocks of certain industries such as IT and pharmaceuticals which are based on export businesses remained under pressure due to continuing disappointment by the earnings caused by decline of USD to INR throughout the year.
Which sectors would outplay others is still not clear.