Aviation Slowdown Forecast in Near Future | CORPORATE ETHOS

Aviation Slowdown Forecast in Near Future

By: | November 8, 2016

Nov 8: The aviation industry continues to face a slowdown in near-term pace of orders due to slower global economic growth and political uncertainties, Honeywell has said. The company in its “Global Business Aviation Outlook” expects 8,600 new business jet deliveries worth $255 billion to take place, which represents a six to seven per cent reduction from the values noted in the 2015 forecast.

“We continue to see relatively slow economic growth projections in many mature business jet markets. While developed economies are generally faring better, commodities demand, foreign exchange and political uncertainties remain as concerns,” said Brian Sill, President, Commercial Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace.

“These factors continue to affect near-term purchases, but the survey responses this year indicate there is improved interest in new aircraft acquisition in the medium term, particularly in the 2018-19 periods.”

The global findings in the 2016 Honeywell outlook include forecast for deliveries of approximately 650 to 675 new jets in 2016, and projection of slightly lower deliveries in 2017, reflecting transitions to new models slated for late 2017 and 2018 service entry.

“Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 27 per cent of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, an encouraging increase but one that is less than firm in timing,” the report said.

“Of the total purchase plans for new business jets, 21 per cent are intended to occur by the end of 2017, while 18 per cent are scheduled for 2018 and 2019, respectively”, it added.

The forecast pointed out that BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) results were improved following continued improvements in Chinese and Russian purchase plans compared with last year, coupled with slight gains in the larger Brazilian survey outlook.  “BRIC industry purchase plans rebounded off 2015 lows, reaching just over 32 per cent in this year’s survey,” the forecast said.